Colorado Rockies news and links for Wednesday, September 11, 2024
The Colorado Rockies are riddled with problems. The 2024 season has provided plenty of examples as to why they are on the brink of yet another 100-loss season in back-to-back years and have the best odds for the number one pick in the 2025 draft. We can blame pitching all day long, and rightfully so, but one of the biggest culprits for the Rockies’ struggles the past six seasons is their offense and more specifically, their overabundance of strikeouts.
Entering the start of the series in Detroit, the Rockies had struck out 1,429 times, which ranks second in baseball behind the Seattle Mariners (1,461). The Rockies’ 26.6 K% is not only the second-highest in baseball but also the highest mark in franchise history, topping the previous record of 25.5% set in 2023. The 75 strikeouts in the first five contests of their current road trip were the second-most since 1900 for one team over a five-game span.
The league average strikeout rate is roughly 22.6%. The Rockies have 12 batters with a strikeout rate above that mark (min. 100 PA), including six with a rate above 30%. It’s a root cause of the problems the Rockies have had scoring runs, finding consistent success at the plate, and turning in competitive at-bats. So what’s the deal?
Swing and a miss
The problem with strikeouts is that it’s a result of not putting the ball in play. Not much can happen on a baseball field when the ball only goes from the pitcher’s hand to the catcher’s glove.
The Rockies swing at pitches in the zone more than most teams as their 70.2% zone swing rate, places them third in all of baseball behind the Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins. In contrast, however, they have the fifth lowest contact rate in the league at 80% and a league-leading 29.6% whiff rate. Nearly a third of all swings taken by the Rockies are a whiff and a large part of that is due to their tendency to chase. A 31.7% chase rate is second only to the Marlins while their 48.7% chase contact rate in the lowest in baseball and the only rate below 50%.
So, swinging the bat a lot can be good, but not being able to actually hit the ball negates any positive influence that factor could have. The San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks, two of the hottest offenses in baseball right now, are in the lower half of the league in zone swing rate, but are in the top three in zone contact and have the two lowest whiff rates.
The Rockies are filled to the brim with young hitters that are aggressive at the plate. Being aggressive isn’t inherently a problem but the inability to self-govern and not expand the zone has proven to be a critical issue. Perhaps it’s trying to do too much with every single swing, a simplified matter, but it seems to go deeper than that.
Two-strike approach
The matter of two strikes drastically changes the odds of an at-bat. With each new pitch of an at-bat, there are constantly changing odds and variables that impact a hitter’s chances of success. Across the league, only one team this season currently has an average of over .200 when hitting with two strikes (Padres). So, it’s not an issue unique to the Rockies who are batting .160 with a .483 OPS, both of which rank in the bottom 10 in the league.
However, what puts something in perspective is that the Rockies have 300 strikeouts with zero balls (second in the league), have the fifth-highest amount of called third strikes (324), and have a high chase rate with two strikes.
It’s hard to be successful with two strikes, but the Rockies aren’t helping themselves early in counts. After going up 1-0 in the count, the Rockies have gone on to strike out 425 times against 267 walks. Yes, they do have a decent .260/.366/.433 slash line after a 1-0 count, but is there a way for them to do better after getting that first pitch advantage in the count? The Rockies will have to make the most of their earlier opportunities in a plate appearance to try and avoid the awful odds of a two-strike count.
Trouble with the… curve? fastball?
So what pitches are causing the Rockies the most trouble?
Well, the Rockies have struck out 645 times on the fastball, fifth-most in the league. Their 22.3 K% and 22.4% whiff rate are both the third highest. They rank 11th in batting average against the fastball so it’s not all bad for them, but it’s still a pitch they have trouble taking care of a lot of the time. When they are able to handle it good things can happen, but it’s still a pitch that the younger generation needs to get a grip on if they want to be successful moving forward.
Breaking balls on the other hand have been just as difficult. It’s the breaking ball that induces the most chase out of the zone and has led to a whopping 610 strikeouts, the most in the league on that category of pitch. They are tied with the Mariners for the highest K% on breaking balls at 34.8, but they lead the league in whiff at 39.1%, nearly three points higher than the next team. They struggle more with the curveball group with a 41% whiff and 39.7 K%, but the slider group isn’t far behind.
The Rockies fair somewhat more decently in the strikeout department against offspeed pitches, but those pitches have done their job in limiting production at the plate and inducing a lot of weak contact.
Where to go from here?
We know there are players on the team capable of growth, Brenton Doyle and Michael Toglia have been great examples of that. However, other players like Ezequiel Tovar have to keep developing and refining aspects of their game if they want to flip the script and stop being so predictable for opposing pitchers. The overabundance of strikeouts is a plague for offenses everywhere, but they don’t have to be.
A more rounded approach is desperately needed. Strikeouts cannot be acceptable when the power is missing, the walks are missing, and the runs are missing. The teams need to learn how to develop at the major league level with research and data and get people in place who can take advantage of the modern processes of helping hitters compete against the elite pitching they face today.
Otherwise, the Rockies are going to keep swinging and missing at everything they do.
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Affected by Altitude Episode 129: When is it time to say “GoodBryant?” | FansFirstSports.com
This week, Evan Lang and I were joined by my brother Dustin of Every Rockie Ever to talk about the strikeout problem, Kris Bryant, and various other things about the youngsters on the way.
Freeland earns Clemente Award nom for third straight year | MLB.com
For the third straight year, Kyle Freeland was the Rockies nominee for the Roberto Clemente Award, recognizing his efforts in supporting and raising awareness for Special Olympics Colorado among other things. You can vote in support of Freeland to win the award here.
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On the Farm
Triple-A: Las Vegas Aviators 10, Albuquerque Isotopes 2
The Isotopes threw out nine hits on the night but all of them were singles as they scratched across just two runs versus the 10 runs on 15 hits by the Aviators. Greg Jones and Hunter Stovall each had a pair of hits while Zac Veen had two walks. The Isotopes went with a committee on the mound with Juan Hillman getting the start, giving up two runs on five hits over three innings. Chance Adams allowed three runs and three walks in his inning of work and Dugan Darnell get hit the hardest, giving up four runs in 1⁄3 of an inning.
Double-A: Akron Rubberducks 4, Hartford Yard Goats 3
The Yard Goats mustered just four hits while Akron totaled 10 on the night resulting in a close matchup that didn’t go Hartford’s way. Sterlin Thompson hit his 13th home run of the season and Warming Bernabel had a double, but not much else was happening for the Yard Goats. Mason Albright started on the hill and tossed five solid innings giving up two earned runs with three strikeouts.
High-A: Spokane Indians 4, Vancouver Canadians 3 (NWL Championship Game 1)
In the first game of the NWL Championship series, the Spokane Indians snagged a victory on the round thanks to a run in the top of the ninth and a strong pitching performance across the board. Bryant Betancourt hit a one-out triple in the top of the ninth for his second hit of the night (the other being a home run), and scoring on a Jose Cordova single. Cole Carrigg also played a key role, going 2-for-4, while GJ Hill hit a home run in the fifth. Jack Mahoney got the nod on the mound and gave up three runs over 5 1⁄3 innings while the bullpen tossed scoreless baseball the rest of the way.
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