Colorado Rockies news and links for Wednesday, December 4, 2024
It’s 2018; the Colorado Rockies are in the Wild Card showdown against the Chicago Cubs. There are two outs in the top of the 13th inning and after two-out singles from Trevor Story and Gerardo Parra, the Rockies are looking to break the 1-1 tie and put themselves in a position to move to the Division Series for the first time since 2009. Luckily for them, they have the chance to send Nolan Arenado, who already grounded out in the inning, to the plate to play hero instead of Tony Wolters, one of the worst hitters in 2018.
Wait, that’s not how it happened.
There has been plenty of buzz recently about a potential rule change idea making the rounds, courtesy of Commissioner Rob Manfred. During an appearance on Puck’s John Ourand podcast, Manfred dropped the breadcrumb of the Golden At-Bat idea. In layman’s terms, it would allow a team, once per game, to send any player in the lineup to the plate.
The purpose of the idea is to give teams a chance to place the bat in the hands of the top players with the game on the line, akin to other sports. Bases loaded with the eight-hole hitter due up in the bottom of the ninth? No worries you can just send up Shohei Ohtani instead. There is some novelty to the idea and plenty of kinks that would have to be worked out before even approaching accepting and implementing it, but today, let’s explore the idea of who the Rockies could rely on in critical situations.
If the intention of the rule is to put the bat in the hands of the top players, that is where we should start and it’s important to remember this isn’t like pinch-hitting because the player is already in the lineup.
Ryan McMahon
Ryan McMahon is doubt seen as a cornerstone offensive figure for the Rockies. He has been nothing but consistent for better or for worse in his big league career. Typically good for 20+ home runs and a fairly average slash line, he’s a prime candidate for the Golden At-Bat. Say what you will about McMahon’s follies as a hitter, but he definitely possesses a clutch gene in his DNA. In 2024, he slashed .329/.458/.553, going 28-for-85 with four home runs and 25 RBIs in high-leverage situations. There is also the fact that he can draw a walk, evidenced by the 21 he drew against 29 strikeouts.
Additionally, the lefty slugger hit .290/.417/.493 with three home runs and 14 RBIs in late and close situations, which does earn him some credit. His best example of being was during the home opener when he belted a walk-off grand slam that swung their win expectancy by 45%. However, I will have to ding McMahon for the fact that he struggled quite a bit with two outs in 2024 and has done so in his career. Can the Rockies trust him in the Golden At-Bat if there are two outs? Especially given his strikeout tendencies?
Ezequiel Tovar
Speaking of strikeouts, how would Ezequiel Tovar fare as the Golden At-Bat? Much like McMahon, Tovar was quite productive in high-leverage situations with his four home runs and team-leading 32 RBIs to go along with a .292 AVG and .821 OPS. His 28.8% strikeout rate are certainly a glaring issue, but it’s hard to ignore that he also led the team in hits (176), runs (83), doubles (45), home runs (26) and RBIs (78). He did manage to drive in 22 runs, the most on the team, with two outs and runners in scoring position while producing a .282/.318/.428 slash and 47 RBIs with RISP in general.
There is concern that Tovar could fall victim to the ground ball in those crucial situations as the Golden At-Bat, especially with less than two outs. Tovar led the team by hitting into 16 double plays, a quick way to kill any rally or critical situation. His aggressive approach at the plate is a high-risk, high-reward type of scenario where if he connects with the right pitch he’ll benefit but he could also swing at some absolute garbage and dink one to second base to end the scoring chance.
Brenton Doyle
How about the prospects of two-time Gold Glover Brenton Doyle? His defense has already moved him into the upper echelon of the Rockies, but his improvement at the plate in 2024 made him one of the best all-around Rockies headed into 2025. Doyle certainly wasn’t as successful in high-leverage situations like McMahon and Tovar, slashing .235/.305/.321 with just one home run. However, he did steal 12 bases, scored 23 runs and had 18 RBIs. That makes him seem more like a Golden Pinch Runner than a Golden At-Bat.
Where he does shine is with RISP, where he batted .327/.393/.541 with five home runs and 48 RBI. He also did just as well with men on base in general, with a .297 AVG and .844 OPS, along with 10 home runs and 59 RBI. Tovar narrowly beats him out in several of the categories listed earlier, but what gives Doyle an edge is his increased ability to draw walks and cut down on strikeouts. He is a more well-rounded at-bat compared to Tovar which gives them slight, yet distinct, differences that could affect a critical situation.
Verdict
The three listed are no doubt the top regulars in the Rockies lineup and would likely get the bulk of the Golden At-Bat opportunities when the need arises. Different situations would necessitate different approaches, like anything else in the game. Personally, I would likely go with Doyle more often than not for the reason of being a more well-rounded at-bat.
I don’t like the idea of the rule because I like the fact that a player like Tony Wolters can have the chance to be the unlikeliest of heroes in that 2018 Wild Card. That rule takes away from the emphasis that everyone in the lineup needs to have the capability of contributing in some way and not just relying on the big names all day because they aren’t infallible either. Still, it’s a fun thought experiment.
Who would you turn to with the game on the line for the Golden At-Bat? Sound off in the comments below!
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