Colorado Rockies news and links for Tuesday, October 15, 2024
Last week, the Colorado Rockies announced that Bud Black will be returning for a ninth season. While the wisdom of this decision can be debated, it gives fans a sense of where the 2025 Rockies are probably headed: on the familiar route the Rockies have traversed for the last six seasons.
Having this framework, then, is helpful when speculating about possible changes to the 2025 roster.
One of the first questions the Rockies will need to answer is who should serve as their veteran fourth outfielder, Jake Cave or Sam Hilliard?
Can you provide some quick background of both players?
Sure.
Hilliard, 30, came up through the Rockies system after playing college baseball for Wichita State. He was drafted in the 15th round of the 2015 draft and made his debut in 2019. Hilliard was a powerful hitter with too many strikeouts (a career K% of 34.1%). In 2022, he was traded to the Atlanta Braves where he dealt with a persistent heel injury.
On November 1, 2023, he was claimed off waivers by the Baltimore Orioles, and on February 28, 2024, he was claimed off waivers by the Rockies. Hilliard played 65 games for the Isotopes before being called up on June 21.
Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images
Cave, 31, came to the Rockies via trade from the Philadelphia Phillies. He was drafted by the New York Yankees in the 6th round of the 2011 draft; in 2018, he was traded to the Minnesota Twins. The Phillies eventually claimed Cave off waivers on December 2, 2022, and he made the team’s opening day roster. He went on to slash .212/.272/.348 in 2023.
On March 24, he was traded to the Rockies for cash considerations, ostensibly to provide relief for Brenton Doyle.
Both players are lefties.
Hilliard has 3.094 years of service time; in 2024, his salary was $800,000; and he will become a free agent in 2027. Cave’s 2024 salary was $1 million; he has 4.071 years of service time; and he will become a free agent in 2026.
Neither player has any remaining options.
(Read Evan Lang’s Ranking the Rockies analysis of Cave’s 2024 here.)
How do they compare offensively?
Let’s start with the numbers, taken from FanGraphs.
FanGraphs
Notably, Cave played in more than twice as many games as Hilliard and had more than twice as many plate appearances, so keep that in mind when comparing the two players.
However, in his (comparatively) limited attempts, Hilliard had three more home runs and tied Cave in stolen bases. (Both were also caught stealing twice.) Moreover, he had a higher BB% (though still not great) and a significantly higher SLG (.507 compared to .396). His wRC+ was also substantially higher (107) than Cave’s (75).
Now compare their Baseball Savant data:
Baseball Savant
Hillard’s power potential in addition to his arm and sprint speed give him a clear advantage over Cave.
Finally, Cave finished the season worth -0.3 fWAR compared to Hilliard’s 0.7.
Hilliard became more effective off the bench during his time away from the Rockies and has been fine as a fourth outfielder.
The offensive numbers suggest, then, that Hilliard was the more effective offensive player even though he had limited opportunities.
Okay, then, how’s the defense?
See for yourself, again according to FanGraphs:
FanGraphs
Neither player’s defensive performance was especially remarkable.
Cave primarily played in right field where he was not very good, earning -3 DRS. However, Hilliard was not much better. In significantly fewer innings, he had -2 DRS and -1 OAA.
In center, the position the Rockies said they most wanted to cover, Cave spent only 43.0 innings to Hilliard’s 121.0. Cave had -2 DRS to Hilliard’s -3 though Hilliard had one Out Above Average.
Cave played 201.2 innings in left field, where he earned -2 DRS. Here, Hilliard was the better defender. In 181.0 innings, he had three DRS.
So defensively, Hilliard gets a slight bounce, but not much.
What will the Rockies do?
Well, it’s the Rockies, so who knows? But one reason Cave saw so much playing time in 2024 was due to injuries to Kris Bryant, Nolan Jones, and Jordan Beck. (Why the Rockies chose not to promote Greg Jones remains a mystery.)
Clearly, Bryant’s days in the outfield are done. Assuming Jones is healthy, he will return there. The next question, then, is whether Beck begins the season in Albuquerque and what the Rockies decide to do with all those young outfielders.
In other words, it’s not unreasonable to expect both Hilliard and Cave to begin 2024 with the Rockies, but it seems unlikely both will finish the season with the team.
Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post
The Rockies may decide they like Cave’s ebullient personality — the “Man of the People” stuff — and his experience on a team that will be without Charlie Blackmon.
But just based on the numbers, Hilliard is probably the better fit for the job.
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This week on the internet
Who knew?
To Bob Costas’ question during #Yankees vs. #Royals: Juan Soto had 83 PA this season with a full count. That was by far the most in baseball, as Colorado’s Ryan McMahon was second at 74 PA in 2024.
— Jessica Brand (@JessicaDBrand) October 11, 2024
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New merch just dropped
This showed up on Twitter over the weekend:
— shirts that go hard (@shirtsthtgohard) October 13, 2024
It’s creative!
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5 questions the Rockies must resolve this offseason | MLB.com
Rockies beat writer Thomas Harding points to adjustments the Rockies need to make, which include possible improvements to the lineup and bullpen.
The Vogelsong Awards: September | Baseball Prospectus ($)
In this series, Rob Mains calls attention to “the best of the overlooked.” Winning “September Full Vogelsong Pitcher of the Month” is Seth Halvorsen. “He’s never appeared in the Annual,” Mains writes, “but he will next year.”
How The Red Sox Overhauled Their Hitting Development Program In 2024 | Baseball America ($)
Alex Speier examines strategies the Sox have undertaken to improve the hitting of their prospects. It’s too soon to know if the approach is working, but perhaps there’s something here for a high-K% Rockies team to consider.
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